Jessica Pegula — Linda Noskova tahminleri

Second serves look like the hinge: Noskova has been attacking them early, with power and enough variation to finish the point. Pegula can blunt that with clean timing and depth, but she needs to keep her own service games from starting on the back foot.

Pegula made Gauff work, but spending so much to save the second set left her with less in the decider. Against Ostapenko, too, she had a chance to finish before control slipped; that is a concern about closing, not a verdict on her nerve.

At 1.86, Noskova to win is worth a look: the price seems light on the pressure her return can create. Pegula’s improved serve against Kostyuk helps, though Kostyuk was short of preparation after wrist trouble, and Pegula still has the stronger season-long hard-court record.

Fatigue is not the main case against Pegula after her recovery time. Noskova’s calf history and Gauff’s serving problems are real cautions, but no recurrence has been reported, and Noskova has said she wants to beat Pegula despite already qualifying.