Mia Pohankova — Maria Sakkari tahminleri

The ranking gap is clear; the tennis this week has been less so. Pohankova beat Bondar 6-1, 6-3, then recovered after losing a promising second-set tie-break against Wang to win the decider 6-1. Her first serve has held up, and she has stayed in longer rallies.

Sakkari’s comeback against Kostyuk was encouraging, though Kostyuk’s errors helped turn it. Sakkari also let a recovery fade against Gibson, and after Beijing she said she had lacked bravery on big points. Double faults and a weak second-serve return against Vekic have left doors open. Pohankova +3.5 games is the more measured way to back a close match at 2.09.

The cushion survives a Pohankova win, most three-set matches and even a straight-sets Sakkari win with a tie-break set. It fails if Sakkari wins comfortably or runs away with the decider. The outright at 3.01 asks too much; Over 20.5 is less useful, since a straight-sets Pohankova win could still finish under it.

The concern is real: Wang took nearly three hours, late at night. Pohankova has a full day to recover, and no injury has been reported; still, heavy legs would give Sakkari the clean win this handicap cannot cover.