Great American Ball Park has spent this series turning small mistakes into crooked numbers. The St. Louis Cardinals have the offensive confidence to trade blows, but Wednesday's matchup points to one glaring weakness: a left-handed starter returning from an unusually long break against a Cincinnati Reds team that can now stack right-handed power.
The Reds: a lineup built for this matchup
Chase Burns is listed to start on normal rest after an August 14 rebound against Miami. His adjustment has been simpler than a new pitch: he is landing the slider for strikes and working the fastball lower in the zone to improve tunnelling.
Burns put it plainly after that outing, telling MLB.com: “Just fill up the zone. Not trying to be too perfect.” Terry Francona credited early-count outs for his ability to work deep.
The lineup got more flexible Tuesday when Noelvi Marte was optioned to Triple-A. MLB.com reported that Francona cited both offensive and right-field defensive shortcomings.
The result is a Reds team with more right-handed options against Liberatore. Tyler Stephenson can move to designated hitter, while Sal Stewart, Eugenio Suárez, Dane Myers, Matt McLain and Ke’Bryan Hayes can join Elly De La Cruz from the right side.
Spencer Steer remains out with a wrist injury, and De La Cruz has shown visible fatigue during a punishing stretch. His Monday walk-off, however, suggested the pressure has eased.
The Cardinals: power, speed, and an uncertain first-inning feel
Matthew Liberatore is also listed to start, but he returns on an unusually long gap after his August 8 appearance in Colorado. The extra rest may restore his arm; it may also leave him searching for release-point consistency early.
That is the wrong profile against a Reds lineup built to hit right-handed. Liberatore has repeatedly had one poor inning turn into a crooked one, and manager Oliver Marmol has been blunt: “We just have to solve for the big innings against him.”
The offense is not short on threats. Joshua Báez has added immediate right-handed power to a group that already includes Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson and JJ Wetherholt.
Riley O’Brien has stabilized the ninth and remains the established closer. The concern is the middle relief after Monday’s doubleheader, when Peter Strzelecki was stretched into a three-inning save and several arms were used in both games.
A small park, humid air, and a storm chance
Great American Ball Park is open-air with compact dimensions and short power alleys. Warm, humid evening air tends to help carry mistakes, especially pulled contact.
There is a medium rain risk after a day of spotty afternoon thunderstorms. A delay would not just interrupt Burns’ rhythm; it would place more pressure on two bullpens already taxed by Monday’s doubleheader.
Why the Reds team total over 4.5 is the target
Liberatore’s season-long ERA above five is only part of the story. The larger issue is how his mistakes tend to cluster: a curveball left middle-middle has already cost him a home run, and Great American Ball Park is less forgiving than most venues.
The Reds no longer have to carry a weak right-field defense or a left-handed-heavy lineup. With Marte optioned and Stephenson able to DH, Francona can send out a righty-stacked order that attacks the left-handed breaking ball and waits for the bad inning.
Burns does not need to dominate for the bet to cash. The Reds simply need five runs, and their expected output in this park, against this pitcher, is far closer to five than their season-long average suggests.
The counterargument is simple: extra rest sometimes sharpens a starter, and Liberatore can settle after rough openings. Tuesday’s bullpen usage is also still unknown at this cutoff, which leaves a layer of variance around the late innings.
A thunderstorm delay is the main complication. If it shortens Burns’ outing, the Reds’ fragile late-game bullpen could be exposed, and the game script becomes harder to trust.
Game prediction: Reds team total Over 4.5, odds 2.03
