Jodar and Fils meet again in Montreal, not long after they traded tiebreaks in Washington. The market separates them by almost nothing, 1.89 against 1.951, and makes no attempt to pick a favourite. The disagreement here is not about the winner but about the length.
Two players who need a set to arrive
Jodar has been the more convincing man since the Washington final, yet he keeps beginning badly: a lost opening set against Moutet, a 1-6 set to Musetti, tiebreaks with Tabilo and Fils. The win over Lehecka was the exception, the one where he led instead of chasing. His return takes time away from big servers, which is precisely what suffocated Fils in Washington.
Fils has been open about the counterargument since Barcelona: he needs a full set to get used to Jodar's ball speed, after which he becomes the more physical player. He dropped the opener there and won the match. In Montreal the hip that troubled him in Washington has stayed quiet, and he moved normally through Navone and a tiebreak finish against Norrie.
Where the games pile up
The default script is a split of sets, and neither player concedes tight passages. Fils has not lost a deciding set this season; Jodar is currently among the more reliable men in pressure games. Their two previous meetings produced 22 and 26 games, which puts the line squarely on the fault line.
Under at 1.68 leans on a pair of quick recent wins over lower-ranked opponents rather than on the character of this pairing. The risk is that Fils adjusts immediately, or that Jodar's return cracks the match open early.
Prediction: Total Over 23.5 games, odds 2.06
