Tien and Tirante meet on the Montreal hard courts in the quarterfinal, and the market treats the American as a comfortable favourite. The recent evidence is less tidy than the price suggests.
One of them has had an easier week
Tirante has taken out Fritz and Popyrin, a former champion in Montreal, without conceding a set. Both are players whose first strike usually settles matters, and neither solved an Argentine who is serving better here than at any previous point. There has been no post-upset hangover either.
Tien's win over Paul was his best tennis of the week and still produced zero aces, three double faults and a second serve that leaked points. Before that came the Monfils match: tape on the left arm, noticeably less penetration on serve and forehand, and a set lost 0-6. He finished against Paul cramping in the right quad.
Where the handicap gets generous
Tien is the better player and the reason is stylistic: a left-hander who reads direction early and redirects pace is an awkward assignment for a forehand-first aggressor. Covering -3.5 games, however, demands the same level of control he produced against Paul, in a fourth match of the week, with a serve that wins him very little for free.
Tirante should hold his own games regularly and find at least one break, which is all the line asks of him. A competitive scoreline, or a set decided in a tiebreak, is the likeliest shape of the afternoon.
Prediction: Tirante +3.5 games, odds 1.905
