Julie Struplova and Alevtina Ibragimova meet in the first round of WTA Antalya on Tuesday, September 8, at 07:30 UTC. The ranking gap is small; the difference in recent opposition and return pressure is rather less so.
Struplova's peak fades as Ibragimova steps up
Struplova's best recent work came at Olomouc, where she beat Radka Zelnickova 6-3 6-4 for the title. Since then, she has lost her next three matches, including a three-set clay defeat to Alice Rame and a heavy US Open qualifying loss to Polina Iatcenko.
Ibragimova has operated at a more demanding level, pushing Paula Badosa deep into a decider and reaching the Palermo semifinal. She also beat world No. 151 Rebecca Sramkova 6-2 6-4 in New York qualifying. Most tellingly, she dismissed Rame 6-0 6-4 on clay, the same opponent who beat Struplova.
The second serve should settle the argument
Neither player can rely on cheap service holds, so the first strike after the serve matters. Ibragimova's lateral defence extends rallies, while her aggressive second-serve returning targets the area that failed Struplova badly in New York. Struplova may have to play one more ball than she would prefer.
Ibragimova has let strong positions slip against Badosa and Francesca Jones, which makes a games handicap unnecessarily ambitious. The straight match price is cleaner and still looks generous given the difference in recent level.
Prediction: Alevtina Ibragimova to win, odds 1.48
