Elina Svitolina and Anna Kalinskaya meet in the women's US Open Round of 32 on Saturday, September 5, at 01:00 UTC. Svitolina is the rightful favourite; the less settled question is whether she can create much separation.
Svitolina's depth meets Kalinskaya's first strike
Svitolina has supplied the steadier work. She swept Solana Sierra aside 6-1, 6-2, then recovered after missing match point to beat 72nd-ranked Maya Joint 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-4. The ankle that ended her Cincinnati run has not required reported treatment in New York, although complete recovery remains unconfirmed.
Kalinskaya arrived with the less reassuring medical note after lower-back and hip trouble in Cincinnati, but she has completed two matches cleanly. Her 7-5, 2-6, 6-3 win over 43rd-ranked Xinyu Wang showed the whole arrangement: early contact and sharp redirection, followed by a passive spell, then a composed deciding set. On hard court, that first-strike game can hurry Svitolina before the rallies settle.
Four games leave the favourite little room
Svitolina's preferred route is to return deep through the middle, extend exchanges and make Kalinskaya repeat her best contact while moving. That may win the match, but it does not naturally produce a wide margin; recent Svitolina wins have often included a lost set or a delayed finish.
Kalinskaya also won their most recent completed hard-court meeting in Doha, evidence that this pattern is not theoretical. The +3.5-game line covers every Kalinskaya victory and many tight Svitolina wins, including the sort of 6-4, 7-6 scoreline this matchup readily permits.
Prediction: Anna Kalinskaya +3.5 games, odds 2.09
